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The Disney Rumor Round-Up
by Dave Marx, PassPorter Publisher and Co-Author
Rumors! What would we do without them? We'd have that
much less to talk about in our discussion communities, less "news" to report in
our newsletters, much less to worry about as we plan our Disney vacations, and
for guidebook authors like Jennifer and me, we'd have far less warning about
what we have to research and what we might have to change in our upcoming
books.
Rumors, however, are always a perilous thing. They might be 100% true, 100%
false or somewhere in between. There's often no telling what part is fantasy,
and what parts contain a precious nugget of truth. In an organization the size
of Disney there are many secrets, and relatively few people are entrusted with
those secrets. With over 60,000 cast members at Walt Disney World and many tens
of thousands more at Disneyland, the Disney Cruise Line, Disney Vacation Club
(DVC), and the Disney resorts in Tokyo, Paris, and Hong Kong, we're still
talking about a whole lot of secret-keepers. But when those secret-keepers
whisper something in the strictest confidence to a trusted co-worker, and that
co-worker tells another, and that co-worker tells yet another, we've got a game
of "telephone" that can quickly morph the original leak beyond recognition. And
that's just the start. Eventually, some cast member tells a guest (or a
columnist, blogger, reporter, webmaster, etc.), and the story goes out all over
the Internet in a matter of hours, with further layers of speculation and
distortion added for good measure. That's why we take such pains here at
PassPorter to identify rumors as rumors.
One thing to remember about any
Disney rumor is that the company has countless feasibility studies underway at
any time. The people working on those studies know there's just a fractional
chance of them ever being approved and rolled-out in their current form. Often,
the same idea is taken out several times over the course of many years,
dusted-off, polished-up, modified, and placed back onto the shelf as something
still not quite ready for primetime (and it may never be). But there will still
be the occasional, enthusiastic Imagineer who just knows the project he/she is
working on will get the green light - it's just so cool, so wonderful, that the
bosses just can't help but approve it when they finally see it. So they tell
someone that it's going to happen, and all the details are correct... but it
just doesn't happen to get approved, and it becomes one of those persistent
rumors that never seem to go away.
Then, there are the rumors that begin
when actual construction begins -- the construction fences go up; the signs say
they're building the future of Epcot, Disneyland, or whatever; and tongues start
wagging. Disney hasn't made a public announcement about what's being built, but
we can all see that something's coming. Officially, it's still a rumor and
probably, none of the reports we get from helpful cast members are completely
accurate. But there it is, and we have to believe our own eyes.
Right?
Finally, there's one more category of rumor out there, the "trial
balloon." There's no hard proof that the Disney company does this, but it seems
pretty likely. We suspect some of the rumors and leaks that reverberate around
the web are actually planted by someone from the Disney organization in order to
sample public opinion. This seems most likely to us when a rumored change comes
to life soon afterwards, but with a few "tweaks" that address the concerns of
the folks who commented on the rumor at message boards and other online
forums.
We consider all reports to be unfounded rumors until we have an
official announcement from Disney. That doesn't stop us, however, from trying to
judge the quality and accuracy of the rumor, or speculating on whether the
rumored item will become reality.
There's no shortage of places to read
about Disney rumors. Tops on my list is Screamscape.com, which manages to report on most rumors, major
and minor. Unfortunately, Screamscape doesn't include a discussion forum.
However, folks have a way of discussing the latest word from Screamscape at
nearly every community on the web. That includes, of course, our own PassPorter
message boards, where we have an entire
forum dedicated to Walt Disney World rumors (rumors about Disneyland and the
Disney Cruise Line don't have a dedicated home, but they find their way into the
appropriate Disneyland and cruise line forums).
So, with all that said,
here's a rundown of some of the more prominent rumors floating around at the
moment.
CONFIRMED! Disney Dining Plan Re-design for 2008. It seems new
information/rumors on this topic emerge every few days, and we expect the 2008
offering to be announced officially by Disney in the next couple of weeks. The
very popular Disney Dining Plan at Walt Disney World seems too good to be true,
so whenever rumors emerge, they almost always report doom -- higher prices,
fewer restaurants, and less-attractive features. So far, the doom scenarios have
not come to pass. It does seem highly likely that the 2008 plan will no longer
include 18% gratuities in the price -- that's a change that was made to the new
trade union contract, so there's little reason to believe it won't happen. After
that ... evidence was found at Disney's UK site that the plan would eliminate
the gratuity and table-service appetizer, and that the price per person/per day
would be reduced by about $11 as a result. Seems like a fair deal. Subsequently,
the UK site was re-programmed so information about the 2008 plan would no longer
be divulged. Then, AllEarsNet reported a rumor with nearly the same information,
with the key difference that the price would only be reduced by about a dollar.
AllEarsNet also reported the possible availability of an additional, deluxe
dining plan. AllEarsNet often gets good information, but this one smells like a
"trial balloon" to me. Personally, I think Disney's aim will be to maintain
current levels of popularity, or even increase it. I'm not sure a big price hike
(by charging the same for less) will accomplish that. Rumor Status: No longer a rumor -- the Disney Dining Plan was revamped for 2008!
Contemporary
Resort DVC Tower. There have been rumors that Walt Disney World's
Contemporary Resort would be the "next" DVC development for some years. Then a
while back, somebody performed a web search and found an architect's rendering
of a DVC high-rise building adjacent to the Contemporary Resort's famous
15-story tower. That rendering soon disappeared from the web, which we'd
consider proof-positive that someone at Disney is watching the rumor mill and
that the rendering had some basis in reality (otherwise, why remove it).
However, just a while later, Disney Vacation Club announced their next project
would be built at Disney's Animal Kingdom Lodge. Not long thereafter, demolition
crews destroyed the Contemporary's North Garden Wing, and construction crews
started sinking support pilings into the ground. That suggests something big is
in the works. Historically, DVC only announces one new project at a time. Once
the sales staff succeeds in selling a substantial number of DVC memberships at
the new resort, they announce the next project. So, will the new construction at
the Contemporary be the next DVC resort to be announced? It seems very likely,
but we probably won't hear an official peep out of Disney until the Animal
Kingdom Lodge villas are nearly sold-out. Rumor Status: High (Rise)
Probability.
A new Disney park in Texas (Missouri, Oklahoma...).
Will a Disney park/resort be built somewhere near the geographic center of the
United States? Reports hit local newspapers on a fairly regular basis and make
their way to the Disney rumor mill. They usually take the same form--somebody
reports that Disney is secretly acquiring large parcels of land in the area.
This echoes Disney's actual practice when it acquired land for Walt Disney
World. So far, none of the rumors seem to have any truth to them. Local real
estate speculators may be the source of some of those rumors and hopeful
thinking may be the source for others. Our own analysis goes as follows: Why
would Disney build another park/resort that might draw attendance away from
either Walt Disney World or Disneyland? Entertainment industry analysts have
long considered the U.S. theme park industry to be fully saturated. Something
like 98% of the population is within easy driving distance of a regional
amusement park/theme park. For folks that travel some distance to a major
attraction like Disneyland or Walt Disney World, a park in the center of the
country would have to offer a particular benefit in terms of travel time or
cost. However, a park in Texas would be no closer than Walt Disney World for
most people east of the Mississippi and no closer than Disneyland for folks from
the Rockies west. The only substantial benefit would be for potential guests in
the low-population Great Plains region and those within about a day's driving
distance--not quite enough people to sustain a Disney-sized resort, especially
considering so many from that region are already traveling in droves to Walt
Disney World and Disneyland. Even guests from Latin America would face similar
flight distances and costs when compared to the distances to California and
Florida. Recently, however, Disney CEO Robert Iger suggested that the company
might develop smaller-scale resorts in other locations around the country, close
to existing popular attractions. These might be hotels or DVC resorts similar to
the DVC resorts at Vero Beach, Florida and Hilton Head Island, South Carolina.
Rumor Status: Won't ever happen (major resort); Moderate probability (minor
resort).
New Country at Epcot. The last new country pavilion to
open at Epcot was Norway in June 1988. Ever since, park fans have been hoping
for more countries, and poring over aerial photos of Epcot to prove that the
space exists for at least one more pavilion. The last solid rumors go back quite
a while now, when Spanish government sources announced they were speaking with
Disney about just such a pavilion. Since then, not a word, so it seems less
likely as time goes by. Still, the space is there, and Disney probably wouldn't
mind finding a country willing to spend the money a pavilion sponsorship
entails. Rumor Status: No-Man's Land.
Star Tours Upgrade. Star
Tours has been operating at Disney parks since the '80s. One important feature
of the ride system is that it can be reprogrammed with relative ease - just
change the ride's movie, re-program the flight simulator-based ride system to
match the film, and off you go! Three new Star Wars films have been released
since Star Tours began ferrying passengers to the Forest Moon of Endor, and fans
of the ride have been hoping for a new slant on this old favorite since Anakin
Skywalker climbed into a pod racer for the first time. How hard would it be to
change the story line so that guests ended-up in a crazed pod race, instead of
joining the attack on the Death Star? So far, no good. A New Hope. Actor Anthony
Daniels (C-3PO), a frequent guest at Star Trek conventions, reportedly announced
at a recent convention that he had filmed some new sequences for an upgraded
ride film. Will that film see the light of day? There's always the chance that
it doesn't satisfy either Disney brass or Star Wars creator George Lucas. Then
again... Rumor Status: Suspended Animation
CONFIRMED! Disney's California
Adventure Re-Theming. Disney's California Adventure park (DCA) has had its
detractors since the day it opened, and rumors that Disney would re-work the
park from front to back are nearly as old as the park itself. If you don't like
the park and you can see that it doesn't attract the same dense crowds as
Disneyland park right across the Esplanade, how can you not believe that the
company will eventually right the situation? These rumors have only accelerated
since Bob Iger replaced Michael Eisner at Disney's helm, and since Pixar
Animation Studios was acquired by Disney soon thereafter. Part of this is based
on the belief that Pixar's John Lasseter, who now also holds an executive
consulting role at Walt Disney Imagineering, wants to re-make whole sections of
DCA (and other Disney parks) in Pixar's own image. Historically, Disney "tweaks"
its parks, it doesn't remake them. Even that legendary disaster Euro Disney
re-emerged as Disneyland Paris with relatively few major changes--just lots of
little tweaks. Rumor Status: No longer just a rumor! See our feature articles on expanding Disney's California Adventure.
CONFIRMED! Disney-MGM Studios Name Change. This rumor is
unsquashable. It's going to be Disney Studios. It's going to be Disney-Pixar
Studios (or maybe, Pixar-Disney Studios). "MGM" will be gone with the wind. Yes,
Disney uses the MGM name under license and that license has to be renewed from
time to time, but why would the movie company want to give up the free
publicity, and why would Disney want to go to the expense of changing a name
that has seemed to work pretty well? It's true that many Disney cast members
(and civilians) occasionally refer to the park as Disney Studios, and that
terminology has even crept (accidentally, as I see it) into Disney's vacation
planning video and the programs you can view on Disney's hotel room TV channels.
There are some reports (mostly from blogger Jim Hill, who has been critical of
Disney's Pixar acquisition) that suggest John Lasseter's Pixar-ego has become so
large that he wants to rename everything in sight for Pixar and convert every
attraction to a Pixar theme. It seems to me that Disney management would be more
interested in blurring the distinction between Disney and Pixar, so that the
Pixar magic can be associated with all Disney-branded products. Re-naming Disney
products "Pixar" is an admission that Pixar is superior, which erodes the value
of the Disney brand. Rumor Status: Not just a rumor! This park's name changed to "Disney's Hollywood Studios" in January 2008.
Animal Kingdom's Beastly Kingdom. Have you ever looked at
the Animal Kingdom Logo and wondered what a dragon is doing among all those real
animals? That's more or less the root of the notion behind Beastly Kingdom, a
new land at the park that has yet to be (and may never be) developed. Most
rumors expect the land to be the home of a big E-Ticket coaster (or two or
three), but with the addition of Expedition: Everest, the park may no longer
need a thrill-focused addition. Yes, the space seems to be there. Yes, coaster
enthusiasts keep hoping Disney will build a thrill-oriented park. Since an
entire park is such a long shot, this rumored land seems their next best hope.
Rumor Status: Here Be No Dragons
Walt Disney World's "Fifth Gate."
Will Walt Disney World ever have a fifth major theme park? Yes, the land still
exists for it. This rumor was especially hot after Universal announced plans for
its thrill-oriented park, Islands of Adventure (IOA). Disney just had to compete
head-to-head with IOA, didn't it? By all appearances, Disney's response has been
to add thrills to existing parks, rather than build a park only a thrill-seeker
could love. Yet the possibility exists that Disney will some day add another
park. Adding another park is a way to extend the average Walt Disney World
vacation from five days to six, or more. That's more money at Disney hotels,
restaurants, and turnstiles. However, the current regime at Disney Parks and
Resorts has found other ways to extend vacation stays without spending huge sums
on construction. Disney (and all park and hotel operators) like things crowded.
It's far more efficient/profitable than having several parks/hotels operating at
less than full capacity. That's especially true these days at Disney. They're
finding more and more ways to utilize existing facilities at near-full capacity
year-round, and are very slow to add additional capacity. How long did it take
Disney management to commit to building new ships for the hugely profitable
Disney Cruise Line? When did Disney last add a new "regular" (non-DVC) resort?
When are they going to complete construction at Pop Century, the most recent
regular resort to be built? The company moves very, very slowly to expand
capacity, and the company is probably concerned that another horror like 9/11
could leave it holding a whole lot of excess capacity. A fifth major park may
indeed happen eventually, but we'll probably see more money invested in new
overseas parks before that happens. Rumor Status: Someday our prince will come.
Related Links:
Disney Dreaming
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Updated 02/23/2008
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